What Europe can learn from the first days of war in the Middle East

With war continuing on the European Union’s eastern flank and the new US-Israeli conflict against Iran reaching the eastern Mediterranean, European leaders are thinking even more carefully about the continent’s defence.

How long the US-Israeli campaign against Iran will last remains uncertain. However, there are already four initial lessons that Europe can learn from the complex battlefield in the Middle East. Combined with the lessons from four years of Russia’s largely unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine, the EU has a blueprint for the core capabilities it should bolster to sustain Europe’s defence.

Intelligence is paramount

The first is that intelligence capabilities are crucial for any successful operation.

The US and Israel started their operation against Iran on Saturday, 28 February, because combined intelligence provided the location and time of an Iranian high command meeting in the compound of Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Eliminating him, together with several members of the high command, was a strong opening to the operation.

Intelligence also played a central role in pinpointing launch sites of air defence systems, many of which were also eliminated in the opening hours of the joint operation, allowing the US and Israel to establish air superiority within a day.

EU countries often have strong reservations about intelligence sharing. Equally, Europe’s strong reliance on US intelligence reflects structural weaknesses, as was demonstrated in Ukraine when the US temporarily suspended intelligence sharing last year.

Both Ukraine and the Middle East show the critical importance of knowing as much as possible about one’s adversary at all times.

Strong air defence is key

The second clear takeaway is the need for strong air defence. While Ukraine continues to suffer from shortages, Israel underscores the importance of a robust, multi-layered system comprising surveillance, early warning, interception and AI-enabled decision-making.

In a direct hit on a building in Beit Shemesh on Sunday, an Iranian ballistic missile penetrated the air defence system after Israeli commanders decided not to deploy the Arrow interceptor. Post-event analysis suggests the system may have offered a better chance of interception, but the decision was made in the final seconds.

Germany has already acquired the latest iteration of the Arrow system, jointly developed by the United States and Israel, but it remains unclear what systems are available in each EU member state, let alone the combined European air defence capability.

Range matters

This new battlefield is taking place across thousands of kilometres using planes and jets, missiles and drones. In the case of the US, the country’s navy has also launched missiles. The front line has become more diffuse and less tied to physical troop positions, with an increasing share of combat carried out by unmanned systems.

Sustain the fight

The final point applies across all battlefields and has been reinforced: the need for sustainment. There is much speculation regarding Iranian capabilities in this respect, but political will must also be sustained throughout any operation if it is to succeed.

Ukraine has stayed in the battle due to its own resolve and the sustained backing of European states. On the other hand, it remains heavily dependent on its military supplies, notably from the US, which is why it is developing so many military production capabilities of its own.

All four categories of change will apply to Europe in the case of war, and all should have been initiated some years ago as core capabilities. Rather than bemoan the delay, it is hoped events will give the Europeans an impetus.

(cm, aw)