‘Nothing but a footnote’, defence expert questions impact of Ukraine’s offensive into Russia

Ukraine’s latest offensive into Russia may provide a much-needed boost to its morale, but according to Danish defence expert Peter Viggo Jakobsen, it is unlikely to last long or alter the course of the war.

On Wednesday (7 August) Russia announced that Ukrainian forces were now fighting on its territory in the Kursk region, bordering Ukraine. According to Moscow’s chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers had entered the country.

The fighting is reported to be taking place around Sudzha, the last operational transshipment point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.

Kyiv has not addressed the attack directly, but any potential military action in the Russian border regions could influence Russian society and strengthen Kyiv’s stance in future peace negotiations with Moscow, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said on national television on 7 August, according to the Kyiv Independent.

Short-lived and little difference

Peter Viggo Jakobsen, associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College, is sceptical about the impact of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, saying, “It won’t change the war. They’ll be kicked out again. I find it hard to see how the Ukrainians have the resources to dig in and hold their ground.”

He added for the offensive to be anything other than a temporary raid, the Ukrainians “must also be able to build some pretty heavily fortified lines of defence.”

According to the defence expert it simply doesn’t make strategic sense for the Ukrainians to try to hold this territory.

“The general narrative around Ukraine is that they lack soldiers, ammunition – pretty much everything,” says Jakobsen.

Rebutting several theories espoused elsewhere, Jakobsen doesn’t think the Ukrainians are holding the line to improve their negotiating position with Moscow. Nor is he convinced that the Ukrainian armed forces want to block and cut off gas supplies to European countries.

Such a move risks souring relations with EU partners, “Ukraine knows that if you stop the supply of gas through to Europe, the Europeans who are still dependent on it, would be upset,” says Jakobsen.

A Ukrainian moral victory

Jakobsen sees the offensive primarily as an attempt to stress Russian (military strategic) decision-making – “an attempt to score a propaganda victory and demonstrate that Ukraine is capable of occupying land in Russia,” he stresses.

The Danish defence analyst draws a parallel with the US army’s Doolittle Raid on Tokyo, April 1942, after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941. Despite the US having limited capability to attack the Japanese mainland, they sent aircraft carriers close to Tokyo and launched 16 B-25 bombers, knowing that the did not have enough fuel to return.

“The Doolittle Raid was based on the philosophy that you had to show the American civilian population that you could fight back. If you read that logic into this (Ukrainian) attack, it makes sense from a moral perspective,” says Jakobsen.

Kyiv did not ask for permission

Both European and American officials said they were not briefed or asked by Kiev, to carry out the offensive. Jakobsen has a clear idea why, “Because we would have told them no.” The Ukrainians thought it was easier to go ahead than to ask for permission.

“The Americans may think it’s a stupid way to use resources, but at the end of the day you also recognise that it’s ultimately up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do,” says Jakobsen.

The Kursk offensive “helps to muddy the waters” from a communications point of view. “The whole narrative in the West is based on Russia being the aggressor and Ukraine being the victim. And when Ukraine starts taking Russian land, it is not so black and white anymore.”

Peter Stano, the European Commission’s lead spokesperson for foreign affairs, said “The fighting inside Russia was not really for us to comment on. The EU is not involved and does not comment on operational developments on the ground,” said Stano, but reiterated the bloc’s support for “Ukraine’s efforts to restore its territorial integrity and sovereignty.”