Analysis: Did MAGA hug Orbán too close?

Viktor Orbán’s defeat is a setback for Donald Trump, who has promoted “patriotic European parties” as a pillar of his national security strategy, and suggests that MAGA endorsement may be a liability.

The US president promoted the Hungarian leader as a civilisational bulwark for Europe and a model for populist leaders.

Emmanuel Macron hailed the result as a “victory for democratic participation, for the Hungarian people’s commitment to the values of the EU, and for Hungary’s place in Europe”.

Not to be left out, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said: “Europe’s heart is beating stronger in Hungary tonight.”

At a rally in Budapest last week, supporters of Orbán’s Fidesz cheered as JD Vance called Trump live. “I’m a big fan of Viktor – I’m with him all the way, the US is with him all the way,” Trump said.

Hungarian voters were not impressed.

Theo Francken, the Belgian defence minister, who once admired Orbán’s tough stance on stopping illegal migration, believes the result proves that a Trump endorsement can prove fatal during elections.

“Explicit MAGA support during elections is more of a liability than an asset,” he said on X, looking at the impact of MAGA comments in boosting the centrists in Canada, or undermining the nationalists in Germany. “You’d be better off running a mile from an electoral MAGA hug.”

Trump’s endorsement was unprecedented but aligned with the US president’s broader EU strategy, framed as “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory”.

“America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism,” said his national security strategy last December.

Since then Trump has gone to war against Iran triggering an upward spiral in energy prices and inflation that has alarmed Europeans – and the “patriots” he backs. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni reportedly refused to allow US use of a Sicilian air base wbile Marine Le Pen and Germany’s Alternative for Germany have also distanced themselves.

In the aftermath of the Hungarian vote, the Orbán lesson may well be that Trump’s support is like that of the rope for a hanged man. The defeat is a political setback for Trump who now – more than ever – must show his MAGA star is in the ascendant.

(cs)