EXCLUSIVE: German intelligence warns Iran could expand terror operations in Europe after war

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has warned that Iran could step up operations against targets in Europe once the conflict with Israel and the US subsides, including attacks on Jewish and Israeli institutions, Iranian dissidents and other perceived opponents of the regime.

“The activities are being investigated by the BfV’s counter-espionage division,” the agency said.

“The BfV assesses that, following the end of the war, the Iranian regime could deploy its intelligence services to track down and target opponents of the regime, including (pro-)Jewish, (pro-)Israeli and US targets, Iranian dissidents, and other individuals deemed ‘traitors’.”

While the Israeli-US campaign has significantly weakened Iran’s security apparatus, intelligence officials fear Tehran could redirect resources towards overseas operations once immediate pressure on the regime eases.

According to the BfV, Iranian intelligence services are willing to employ methods amounting to state terrorism. “These range from threats against targeted individuals to surveillance operations carried out in preparation for attack plots,” the agency said.

Former Berlin resident Ashkan K. recently moved to Tehran and called on Iranians abroad to “serve our country in this national defence. The options are plentiful.”

Among them are two men from Hamburg who appeared in a propaganda video at a Basij militia checkpoint carrying assault rifles. One of the men, known as Benjamin G., is believed to belong to the wider circle of the Islamic Centre Hamburg (IZH), long regarded by German authorities as Tehran’s most important outpost in Europe before it was banned in 2024.

One of those appearing in propaganda videos from Tehran is Aitak Barani, a longtime German resident and Hamas supporter who was convicted and fined in Frankfurt last year for glorifying Hamas’ 7 October attacks on Israel.

Benjamin G. from Hamburg appeared in a propaganda video for the Iranian regime, manning a checkpoint.

“The abstract threat level posed by Iranian intelligence services to (pro-)Jewish, (pro-)Israeli targets, as well as Iranian opposition individuals and groups in Germany, remains high,” the BfV said.

For state-sponsored terrorist activity, Iranian intelligence services primarily rely on proxies linked to organised crime networks already operating in target countries, the agency added.

As a lower-cost interim strategy, the regime has since March 2026 relied on a recruitment campaign operating under the name Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI). According to the BfV, HAYI uses social media channels within pro-Iranian and Shiite extremist circles to publicise its activities.

“By deploying young, low-cost, disposable operatives, states or networks can generate threats that are difficult to predict or track, costly to counter, and even harder to disrupt with conventional counterterrorism methods,” he said, arguing such operations were far cheaper for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards than training professional operatives or risking direct state involvement.

The steady stream of lower-level HAYI incidents, he said, risked overwhelming European security services by forcing them to protect soft targets such as synagogues, schools and community centres while monitoring a growing volume of online activity and investigative leads.

“A dual-track approach – namely HAYI-style low-cost harassment potentially combined with more sophisticated plots by trained returnees or reactivated sleeper cells – represents a plausible risk that European authorities should prepare for.”

On Friday, the US Justice Department announced the arrest of Mohammad Baqer Al-Saadi, a senior commander in the Iraqi Shia militia Kataib Hezbollah and an alleged key facilitator behind HAYI operations.

(cz)