Iran missile reach puts Europe in range after Diego Garcia strike

Iran’s firing of two ballistic missiles at a US base in the Indian Ocean last week has highlighted Tehran’s potential 4,000 km strike range, raising fresh concerns that European capitals could fall within reach.

This is the first attack on Diego Garcia, the remote atoll located 3,800 km from Iran’s mainland. One missile is believed to have plunged into the sea while the other was reportedly intercepted by a US warship using SM-3 interceptors.

“If SM-3 interceptors were indeed used at the outset, then the assessment that the US-UK base on Diego Garcia could have been hit appears entirely plausible,” said a European security source and analyst specialising in ballistic missiles. Radar analysis allows analysts to determine a missile’s speed and trajectory, and extrapolate its likely point of impact.

Iran has long said its missiles reach about 2,000 km. But the Diego Garcia strike points to a much longer range. “It is highly plausible that the regime now possesses missiles with a range of 4,000 km,” the analyst said, though much remains unknown.

Accuracy remains a critical question, particularly given that Iran cannot yet arm such systems with nuclear payloads.

“Compared with Western systems, the precision is catastrophic,” the analyst said. Guidance in the terminal phase remains a major weakness. Iran has yet to test missiles over 4,000 km, and even at distances beyond 2,000 km, it has struggled with targeting accuracy.

That limitation would make it difficult to strike hardened military targets in Europe. Yet politically, the calculus is different.

“It makes sense for Tehran if you look at these weapons primarily through a political lens,” the analyst said. European capitals themselves are strategic targets that do not require high precision: “The regime views European states that provide infrastructure to the US as participants in the conflict.”
Iran’s ambassador to Germany, Majid Nili, for instance, has pointed to the US air base at Ramstein, which is used during the ongoing air campaign.

Production capacity

For now, Iran’s production capacity for medium-range missiles is believed to be disrupted, the analyst said. Manufacturing such systems requires complex industrial processes: CNC machining, specialised alloys, and solid-fuel motor production.

Analyses of the wreckage of past Iranian missiles suggest competent design but inconsistent manufacturing quality. “You need not just good engineers, but sound management and skilled technicians,” the analyst said.

Before the recent US-Israeli air campaign, Iran’s production capacity was substantial, implying that a significant portion of its arsenal likely remains stored in underground so-called missile cities.

Less clear is how many launchers the regime retains. These are typically not interchangeable: platforms used for short-range missiles aimed at neighbouring Arab states are not suited for medium-range missiles.

Europe’s defences under scrutiny

Europe has a strong interest in curbing Iran’s ballistic missile program, the analyst said, as its defences face a narrow margin for error.

Medium (or intermediate-) range ballistic missiles must preferably be intercepted exo-atmospherically; in the terminal phase, their speed increases sharply, making interception far more difficult.

The regime has systematically expanded both the range and striking power of its ballistic missiles: “It is developing systems capable of hitting not only Israel, but cities like Paris, London or Berlin,” he said.

Cooperation on the Arrow-3 system, he added, is a direct response to that threat. “Germany benefits directly from Israel’s experience in confronting the mullah regime.”

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